イノマティブの今日の本命

JRAの重賞を予想していきます

【Prediction】NHK Mile Cup & Niigata Daishoten

 

The preparation for movement to Japan is now starting. For example, a movement company will check the amount of my stuff tomorrow. When I left Japan, I had the same event and I was anxious and reluctant to do it. However, now I'm welcoming this kind of event. The end of my German life is coming for sure.

 

 

Life in Germany

Sächsische Schweiz

On the 2nd day in Dresden, I went to a famous mountain. It took about 1 hour from Dresden to the starting point by train. It is close to the border with Czech Republic.

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As soon as arriving at the station, I needed to cross Elbe river by boat.

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After getting off the boat, I started hiking. This hiking reminded me of Mt. Tsukuba, which I visited with blog members some years ago.


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I took about 1 hour to reach the summit and it was tougher exercise than my expectation. However, the view from there was very nice and I thought it was worth walking such a long mountain way.

As you can see in the pictures, this is a rocky mountain and the shape looks unique. "Bastei Bridge" is the most famous attraction and it was crowded with many hikers.

On the way, I found an extra course which can be tried for a few euros. 

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In this course, we can walk on small artificial bridges between rocks. It was a scary experience and especially the following warning frightened me so much.

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After I finished hiking, I moved to another destination located at the next station. As soon as getting off a train, I used the following cute vehicles.

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I finally arrived at the 2nd destination "Königstein Fortress".

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I climbed this tall wall by an elevator and I explored inside the fortress. I found many cannons, which implied this building was used for wars in the past.


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This fortress is famous for the 2nd deepest well in Europe. A staff explained the details with a demonstration, but I was not able to understand his German explanation at all.


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As well as the rocky mountain mentioned above, the view of this region was very impressive.

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In summary, I enjoyed the nature in Germany on the 2nd day of this trip. When I travel in Europe, I usually go to famous architectures. However, through this trip, I appreciated large-scale European nature which we can never see in Japan. I'm looking forward to visiting Matterhorn next month.

 

 

Prediction

NHK Mile Cup(GI, Tokyo, T1600m)

My favorite : ⑭Yurisha (Odds : 15th)

・This race is famous for its unpredictable results every year. For example, the highest-odds horse got the 3rd place last year and the dividend of TRIFECTA was over 1.5 million yen. As for this year, it seems that almost all of the participants have an equivalent strength. You can confirm this fact from the odds, where the lowest is around 6 times and there are 11 horses with lower odds than 30 times. In addition, the weather forecast says it will be rainy today and this makes the prediction more difficult. I already wrote many excuses, but what I want to say is I gave up thinking about this race.

・That is why I decided to bet on ⑭Yurisha. This is just because she maybe will run in the leading position. In my experience, a giant-killing is often caused by this kind of leading horse. Her rank was 11th in her last race, but she was a race favorite at that time. Cosidering this large increase of odds, I think this is a good chance to get much money. 

・For a similar reason, I would like to bet on ⑯Tamamo Black Tie as well. He has the fastest time for 200m after starting. Furthermore, his odds is the 12th lowest even though he won a graded race recently. I think everyone underestimates his strength.

・I bought 2 PLACE tickets of the above 2 horses. Just in case, I also bought QUINELLA PLACE ticket consisting of the two for 100 yen.

Betting ticket

Total : ¥2,000

 

 

Niigata Daishoten(GIII, Niigata, T2000m)

My favorite : None

・This race is also difficult to predict because the horses with the 1st and 2nd lowest odds never won in the past 10 years. In addition, it is rainy in Niigata today like Tokyo. I tried to predict the result carefully again and again, but I was not able to select one horse as my favorite. That is why I would like to bet on some horses as a box type of betting.

・5 horses are included in the following TRIO ticket. I think these 5 horses are good at a rainy condition judging from their father or their past results.

Betting ticket

Total : ¥1,000

 

 

 

 

Total in 2023 : +24,260  (Expire date : 2nd Jul.)

Collection rate : 143.3%

Hitting rate : 14.0% (7/50)

 

Ino-meter : Losing 2 race in a row