【Prediction】日本ダービー＆目黒記念 - イノマティブの今日の本命

I have just now come back to my house from Amsterdam.

I totally enjoyed this trip (except for a train trouble at the end).

While coming back by train, I considered Derby held tomorrow.

This means that I spent 5 hours thinking about Derby.

Judging from the amount of today’s blog, you can guess how much I devoted myself to the prediction of Derby and how much I’m confident in it.

Prediction
- 日本ダービー（GI、東京、芝2400m）
  - Betting ticket
- 目黒記念（GII、東京、芝2500m）
  - Betting ticket

Prediction

日本ダービー（GI、東京、芝2400m）

My favorite : ⑱Equinox (3rd favorite)

・I decided to rely on Lemaire-san in this Derby. ⑱Equinox got the 2nd place in 皐月賞　even though he took part in that race after the long period of rest. This rotation was uncommon, but he showed the good performance and got rid of everyone’s concern. Considering this disadvantageous background in 皐月賞, I’m sure that he will be better. He already showed he was good at Tokyo Racecourse in 東スポ杯2歳S. When it comes to Lemaire-san, he finally won a graded race last week. I hope he will lead ⑱Equinox successfully again.

・In addition to ⑱Equinox, ⑫Danon Beluga, ⑬Do Deuce and ⑮Geoglyph get a majority of votes in this Derby. Among these 3 horses, I predict ⑫Danon Beluga and ⑬Do Deuce will run better this time because they traced a bad route in 皐月賞. ⑫Danon Beluga ran on the damaged inside turf and ⑬Do Deuce was forced to run outside at the last corner. On the other hand, ⑮Geoglyph ran on an ideal route in that race. As a result, he won 皐月賞, but I can’t imagine he will beat other strong horses again. That is the reasons why I think ⑫Danon Beluga and ⑬Do Deuce are better to bet than ⑮Geoglyph.

・I’m also interested in 2 horses with relatively higher odds. They are ③Ask Victor More and ⑯Killer Ability. Taking the past trend of Derby into account, sons of Deep Impact are likely to get a higher rank. ③Ask Victor More and ⑯Killer Ability meet this condition. Regarding ③Ask Victor More, he will be able to start from the inside position. In Derby, a dark horse with a small horse number sometimes ranks in the top 3 unexpectedly. As for ⑯Killer Ability, even though he already won a GI race last year, he is the 8th favorite now. This is because he was the 13th place in 皐月賞. However, he had a bad start at that time and went on the damaged turf like ⑫Danon Beluga. Unless he makes such a mistake, I believe he will be able to run much better.

・Summarizing these points, I bought some trifecta tickets, where I predict ⑱Equinox will win.

Betting ticket

Total : ￥2,000

目黒記念（GII、東京、芝2500m）

My favorite : ⑧Meiner Virtus (6th favorite)

・The main reason why I selected this horse as my favorite is he got the 2nd place in アルゼンチン共和国杯, which uses exactly the same course as this race. Considering the winner was a strong horse Authority at that time, we can give ⑧Meiner Virtus a good evaluation.

・It is well known that giant-killing often happens in 目黒記念. Therefore, I also would like to bet some dark horses. The candidates are ④Vesuvianite, ⑨Diamant Minoru, ⑩Prima Vista and ⑯Win Kiitos for some reasons.

・I bought the win ticket and some quinella tickets relating to ⑧Meiner Virtus.